A Spatial Epidemiological Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease in North Central Province, Sri Lanka
نویسندگان
چکیده
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious diseases of animal livestock in the world in terms of economic impact. FMD is endemic in the dry zone of Sri Lanka and considered to be a common disease among cattle and buffaloes in this area. A massive epidemic in 2014 swept through all the Provinces, resulting in 58,645 cases and 1,265 deaths, the largest number recorded since 1987. In Sri Lanka, currently there is no regular, nationwide vaccination programme devised to control FMD. One of the major obstacles in meaningful economic analysis has been the lack of substantive data on the relationship between vaccination strategies and the resultant incidence of FMD. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the transmission coefficient of FMD and the critical vaccination coverage required to prevent outbreaks. Employing the Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model, the transmission coefficient for FMD incidence was quantified. The transmission coefficient was estimated to be 0.618 by the SEIR model. The vaccination coverage at 6 months was found to be 35% in North Central Province. The number of infected animals was 10,676, corresponding to a vaccination coverage of 35% (Under a condition of 85% vaccine efficacy). The actual number of reported cases was 8,384 during the same period; the model over estimated cases by +21.5%.
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